BioVal — embed preview
Early access · Invitation only · Spring 2026

Risk adjusted valuation.
Built for clinical stage biotech.

BioVal™ collapses the assumptions analysts typically scatter across half a dozen spreadsheets into a single, transparent, multi-factorial rNPV model. Every multiplier mapped to a peer reviewed source. Every output traceable to the input that drove it.

Request early access See the methodology Pricing on request. Bundles available for multi-asset pipelines.
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Built on, 120+ sources
  • BIO, Informa & QLS01
  • Tufts CSDD02
  • IQVIA03
  • FDA Orphan Drug Report04
  • Wong, Siah & Lo (2019)05
  • MIT NEWDIGS06
  • EFPIA07
  • OECD & EY Tax Guide08
§ 01 The platform

Three layers, one coherent valuation.

01 / VALUATION

An rNPV engine you can audit, line by line.

Probability of success is built up factor by factor from base rates, therapy area, modality and regulatory designations. Every intermediate result, gross revenue, margin, royalty, opex, tax, is exposed in a calculation transparency panel.

  • Base PoS sourcesBIO, Informa, QLS
  • Phases modelledpreclinical to phase IV
  • Cost calibrationTufts & IQVIA
  • Regulatory designationsOrphan, Fast Track, Breakthrough …
02 / SCENARIOS

Bull, base and bear, plus the maths underneath.

Build, save and compare your own scenario estimates side by side. Adjust assumptions, see the rNPV move, and stress test the result with one way tornado charts, two way sensitivity tables, and a Monte Carlo run of ten thousand iterations. Every change stays in your workspace until you choose to share it.

  • Sensitivitytornado & 2D matrix
  • Monte Carlo10 000 runs
  • Comparisonunlimited scenarios
  • CurrencyUSD, EUR, SEK, NOK, DKK, GBP
03 / PIPELINE

From single asset to a defensible pipeline view.

For multi-asset pipelines, each programme keeps its own phase, indication and assumptions. The platform sums peak sales and remaining costs across all assets, and weights probability of success by NPV — so you can see total pipeline value at a glance, and the contribution of each asset behind it.

  • Programmes per pipelineunlimited
  • Per asset overridesphase, region, WACC
  • AggregationNPV weighted PoS
  • Status trackinglead, active, on hold
§ 02 Methodology

The formula sits in plain sight.

rNPV = (NPV × PoS)
− remaining R&D

Risk adjusted net present value, the way industry has done it since the late nineties. What is novel is not the formula, it is the discipline: every input has a source, every adjustment has a multiplier, and every multiplier is logged in the transparency panel.

NPV Discounted net revenue, after gross margin, royalties, licensing, opex and tax. DCF
PoS Cumulative probability from current phase to approval, with multiplicative adjustments for therapy area, modality and regulatory designations. BIO 2021
R&D Out of pocket cost to advance, by phase, by therapy area, optionally discounted at WACC. TUFTS 2023
Revenue S-curve adoption from launch to peak, with a configurable post LoE erosion tail. IQVIA 2023
§ 03 Surface

Evaluate one asset at a time. From every possible angle.

Every BioVal valuation passes through 94 data input points across twelve domains. Phase, designations, geography, pricing, financing, scenarios. Each one mapped to a peer reviewed benchmark. Each one visible from input to output, in real time.

Countable rNPV configurations
3.4 × 1023
More than the stars in the observable universe. Mathematically infinite once continuous pricing, patient population, OpEx and R&D cost fields are included.

Twelve domains. Ninety-four data points. All relevant.

01
Scientific & clinical profile
Phase, status, modality, therapy area, indication, mechanism, disease flags, custom PoS.
3.2 × 1011 permutations
02
Regulatory designations
FDA and EMA pathways. Eight independent designation toggles, each with its own multiplier.
256 combinations
03
Market geography
Eleven regions. Per region distribution strategy. Optional MFN reference pricing.
2,047 region subsets
04
Market analysis engine
Per region patient funnel, VBPP value drivers, five commercial multipliers, S-curve calibration.
3.45 × 108 states
05
Pricing & patent
Post LoE erosion, residual floor, annual price drift, valuation horizon.
248 discrete configs
06
Development costs & timeline
Company profile multiplier, per phase cost overrides, three independent escalation rates.
31,944 combinations
07
OpEx & financing
Five OpEx categories, financing rate, four component breakdown, recurring cost intervals.
continuous
08
In & out licensing
Upfront, milestones, royalty rates per region, PoS-adjusted milestone payments.
continuous · per region
09
Margins & tax
Four industry margin templates. Six tax jurisdictions with custom override.
96 discrete
10
Scenario levers
WACC, time adjustment, market share, PoS multiplier, manual override, catalyst toggle.
4.8 × 109 permutations
11
Monte Carlo & sensitivity
Pricing and PoS variance bands, tornado axis selection, five iteration presets up to 50k.
~250,000 setups
12
Display & field visibility
Six currencies, raw vs millions display, per field public, internal or restricted, custom indications.
configurable
§ 04 Worked example

Eleven steps from revenue to rNPV estimate.

Example, illustrative only.
Nordic DemoBio AB · phase II
StepOperationResult, SEK
Treated patients at peak71k pop × 27.7 per cent blended share
71k × 27.7%
19 700
Gross peak revenueat peak, year 2041
× 1.08 M / patient
21.3 B
Gross profit at peakbiotech, 72 per cent margin
× 0.72
15.3 B
After royaltyupstream obligations
− 8 per cent
14.1 B
EBIT at peakregional commercial, opex
− 975 M / yr
13.1 B
Net cash flow at peakSE, 20.6 per cent tax
× 0.794
10.4 B
Lifetime cash, undiscounted14yr stream, S-curve to LoE
× ~4.3
44.7 B
NPV after WACCWACC 12 per cent, weighted
× ~0.40
18.0 B
Apply PoS27.6 per cent, phase II → approval
× 0.276
4.97 B
Less remaining R&D3.0 B nominal, discounted
− 2.9 B
2.07 B
Less financing & bridgesissuance, advisory
− 50 M
2.02 B
rNPV estimate
final
2.0 B

Why eleven steps

The point is not to make valuation more complex. The point is that an investor, an analyst, a portfolio manager or a CFO can stop at any row and ask the same question: where did that number come from?

Hidden assumptions are how rNPV models go wrong. A peak share that drifts two percentage points, a tax rate that quietly defaults to 21 per cent, a royalty stack that double counts the licensor, any of these can flip a recommendation. BioVal makes them visible.

An rNPV is only as defensible as the smallest assumption you can name. Eleven steps is what it takes to name them all. BioVal methodology note · 2026
§ 05 Who it is for

Made for the desks that defend the number.

Strategy & IR

Build your case, line by line.

No mega-spreadsheets or black box methodology. Every input cited, every assumption displayed, every step open to challenge, internally and with the market.

Executive

Tell the IR story with numbers that speak louder than words.

Maintain a live valuation of your own asset or pipeline. Share rNPV estimates with the board, the IR desk, analysts and investors.

BD & licensing

Negotiate against a model, not a feeling.

Model out licensing scenarios with milestone schedules, royalty stacks and cost sharing splits. Walk into the room with the maths already done, and a clear view of your asset's value.

© 2026 BioStock AB BioVal™ is a trademark of BioStock AB