Alzinova · ALZ-101
Alzinova is a single-asset story built on ALZ-101, an active immunisation that trains the patient's own immune system against the toxic oligomeric form of amyloid beta 42. The phase Ib study is complete and positive on safety and immunogenicity; the value now turns on a phase II efficacy programme that has not yet reported.
Our 19.0 per cent Probability of Success (PoS) starts from the phase II benchmark, i.e. the asset's current phase, and applies the factors the engine carries for this programme: a downward adjustment for the CNS indication (- 20 per cent), an uplift for biomarker-driven eligibility (+ 20 per cent) and a US Fast Track designation bonus (+ 10 per cent). At the current SEK 97M market cap the market implies a 5.2 per cent PoS, roughly a quarter of our base case. The gap to fair value is large in percentage terms precisely because the equity is priced as a micro-cap option on a multi-billion-krona disease market.
This analysis values the ALZ-101 asset alone, with geographic scope limited to the USA, EU27, UK and Japan. In other words, the company's other assets and potential markets are unpriced optionalities.
BioStock Analytics has initiated coverage of Alzinova AB (ALZ, Nasdaq First North Growth Market Stockholm) with a commissioned risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) analysis of the company's lead asset, ALZ-101 – an oligomer-specific therapeutic vaccine built on Alzinova's proprietary AβCC peptide technology and developed for early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease (mild cognitive impairment and mild AD).
The BioVal engine arrives at a base-case rNPV of SEK 7.1B and, once net cash is added, an equity fair value of SEK 7.2B. Against a market capitalisation of SEK 97M that implies a valuation gap of +7262 per cent – equivalent to a market-implied probability of success of 5.2 per cent, well below the analysis's 19.0 per cent base-case assumption.
ALZ-101 is an active immunisation rather than an infused antibody. It comprises a stabilised oligomeric amyloid beta 42 antigen that induces a humoral response directed specifically at the soluble, low-abundance oligomeric form of amyloid beta 42 – increasingly viewed as the species most toxic to synapses – in contrast to the chronic intravenous infusion schedule of the approved anti-amyloid antibodies.
The phase Ib study ALZ-C-001 enrolled patients with MCI or mild Alzheimer's disease and, in its March 2025 final analysis, met its primary and secondary objectives of safety, tolerability and immunogenicity, with adverse events predominantly mild injection-site reactions. Exploratory endpoints, while not powered for efficacy, showed a stable disease picture supported by a positive effect on a neurodegenerative biomarker. The near-term value driver is the phase II efficacy programme, with design and initiation flagged for 2025-2026.
The analysis values the ALZ-101 asset alone, with a geographic scope limited to the USA, EU27, UK and Japan. The company's other assets and potential markets are excluded, leaving them as unpriced optionalities.
On these assumptions, the model projects peak sales of SEK 59B in 2041, with the base case framed against a Monte Carlo range that stays positive in 100 per cent of simulations.
All figures are built using the BioVal rNPV engine from explicit clinical, market and cost parameters, and are presented in SEK as produced by the engine.
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This analysis is built using the BioVal rNPV engine. Open the interactive model to adjust peak market share, WACC and probability of success, run bull and bear scenarios, and watch the revenue projection and valuation waterfall rebuild in real time.
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Commissioned research. This analysis has been commissioned and paid for by Alzinova AB. BioStock AB acts as an independent analyst and the valuation conclusions are not subject to issuer approval; the issuer reviews the analysis for factual accuracy of company-specific information only.
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