BioStock Analytics has initiated coverage of Elicera Therapeutics AB (ELIC, Nasdaq First North Growth Market) with a commissioned risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) analysis of the company's lead asset, ELC-301 – a fourth-generation, CD20-directed CAR T-cell therapy armed with Elicera's iTANK platform and developed for relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL).

The BioVal engine arrives at a base-case rNPV of SEK 631M and, once net cash is added, an equity fair value of SEK 691M. Against a market capitalisation of SEK 178M that implies a valuation gap of +288 per cent – equivalent to a market-implied probability of success of 9.6 per cent, well below the analysis's 15.3 per cent base-case assumption.

ELC-301 is positioned one step beyond the established CD19-directed CAR-T frontier. A meaningful share of patients relapse after CD19 therapy because the CD19 antigen is lost; by targeting CD20, ELC-301 addresses precisely this post-CD19 relapse population, which today has limited treatment options.

Currently available data from the phase IIa CARMA study, spanning all three dose cohorts, show a 100 per cent disease control rate and complete metabolic responses in six of the eight patients treated to date, with no dose-limiting toxicities reported across any cohort. The near-term value driver is the high-dose cohort readout, publicly flagged for 2026.

The analysis values the ELC-301 asset alone, with a geographic scope limited to the EU27 and the United Kingdom – identified as the primary launch markets and where ELC-301 has sufficient IP protection. The company's other assets and the US market are excluded, leaving them as unpriced optionalities.

On these assumptions, the model projects peak sales of SEK 8.4B in 2038, with the base case framed against a Monte Carlo range that stays positive in the large majority of simulations.

All figures are built using the BioVal rNPV engine from explicit clinical, market and cost parameters, and are presented in SEK as produced by the engine.