BioStock Analytics has initiated coverage of Saniona AB (SANION, Nasdaq Stockholm) with a commissioned risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) analysis of SAN2668, an oral small molecule from Saniona's own ion channel research. SAN2668 binds the benzodiazepine site of the GABA_A receptor and is designed to potentiate receptors containing the α3 and α2 subunits while keeping α1 modulation balanced; Saniona links α1 to the sedation of non-selective benzodiazepines. The analysis values SAN2668 in poorly controlled developmental and epileptic encephalopathies (DEE), all ages.

The value turns on the first clinical data. Saniona plans to submit its clinical trial application by the end of December 2026, and the model doses the first healthy volunteers in April 2027. Phase I results in healthy volunteers, expected in early 2028, move the engine's cumulative PoS from 12.0 to 21.6 per cent. Proof of concept in children with DEE, expected at the end of 2028, moves it to 44.4 per cent.

The 12.0 per cent PoS starts from the phase I benchmark of 10.0 per cent and applies a factor for DEE (× 1.20), which reflects the higher development success of antiseizure medications than of neurology overall as well as the rarity of the disease. No orphan designation has been granted, so BioVal™'s orphan designation factors are not applied. On 13 November 2026 the EMA's Committee for Orphan Medicinal Products adopted a positive opinion recommending EU orphan designation for SAN2668 in CHD2-related neurodevelopmental disorder, a genetic DEE. As an opinion it is not yet counted in the PoS; once the European Commission's decision is in place, BioVal™'s EU orphan factor (× 1.15) would raise the PoS to 13.8 per cent. The analysis does not read the designation as a narrowing of the target market, which stays the broad DEE population.

The market covers patients of all ages with poorly controlled DEE in the USA, EU27 and UK, 295,715 a year, priced against the three approved add-on medicines Epidiolex, Fintepla and Diacomit. SAN2668 is valued as an asset on its own: company overhead, financing and cash are not part of the value. The closest late-stage competitor, Lundbeck's bexicaserin, has phase III headline results due at the end of 2026 or in the first quarter of 2027.

On these assumptions, the model projects peak sales of SEK 19.37B in 2042, with the base case framed against a Monte Carlo range that stays positive in 100.0 per cent of simulations.

All figures are built using the BioVal™ rNPV engine (version 2.6.1) from explicit clinical, market and cost parameters, and are presented in SEK as produced by the engine.