SynAct Pharma · Resomelagon
SynAct's three assets give a combined value of SEK 2.90B in this analysis: the sum of their risk-adjusted net present values (rNPV), minus corporate overhead costs and the cost of raising capital, plus net cash.
Most of that value sits in the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) asset, valued at SEK 2.72B with a 32.3 per cent probability of success (PoS). The asset is on the verge of phase III, with the FDA meeting and its feedback due in the near term, so the PoS blends the phase II and phase III benchmarks, adding BioVal™'s factor for autoimmune disease (× 1.10), while BioVal™'s RA factor (× 1.26) is set to × 1.00 as a conservative choice. The bear and bull cases (SEK 1.34B and SEK 4.72B) are the 10th and 90th percentiles of a simulation in which PoS, price, share, timing and WACC vary together.
The respiratory viral infections (RVI) and dengue assets add SEK 358.39M and SEK 79.97M respectively, at a PoS of 20.2 per cent and 19.8 per cent, both built from the phase II benchmark of 18.0 per cent. Dengue is partnered in Brazil with Hipolabor Farmacêutica under the agreement signed on 27 October 2026, with a 50/50 profit share and a 50/50 split of development costs.
This analysis applies a geographic scope limited to the USA, EU27 and UK for RA and RVI, identified as the primary launch markets and where resomelagon has patent protection granted or pending, and to Brazil for dengue, the territory of the Hipolabor agreement. The company's other programmes (polymyalgia rheumatica, idiopathic membranous nephropathy, TXP-11) and other markets are excluded, leaving them as unpriced optionality.
BioStock Analytics has initiated coverage of SynAct Pharma AB (SYNACT, Nasdaq Stockholm, Small Cap) with a commissioned risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) analysis of resomelagon (AP1189), a once-daily oral tablet that activates the melanocortin receptors MC1R and MC3R. SynAct describes the approach as resolving inflammation through the body's own resolution pathways rather than suppressing the immune response. The analysis values resomelagon as three assets: rheumatoid arthritis (RA), respiratory viral infections (RVI) and dengue.
The value turns on rheumatoid arthritis. RA carries SEK 2.72B, or 86.1 per cent of the sum of the asset values. SynAct has submitted its phase III design to the FDA, and the Type C feedback is expected at the end of 2026 or early 2027.
The RA PoS blends the phase II benchmark of 18 per cent and the phase III benchmark of 56 per cent at 70/30, giving 29.4 per cent, and applies BioVal™'s factor for autoimmune disease (× 1.10) to reach 32.3 per cent. BioVal™'s RA factor (× 1.26) is set to × 1.00 as a conservative choice. RVI starts from the phase II benchmark with the infectious disease factor (× 1.12), giving 20.2 per cent, ahead of the RESPIRE readout in 2027. Dengue starts from the same benchmark with a factor of × 1.10, giving 19.8 per cent, ahead of the RESOVIR-2 topline in the second quarter of 2027.
Each asset is valued as a project, and company-level items are counted once. The three asset values sum to SEK 3.16B. Corporate overhead costs of SEK 212.95M in present value and a cost of raising capital of SEK 84.16M are deducted, and net cash of SEK 42.36M is added, for a combined value of SEK 2.90B. The assets share a molecule, so development costs and probability of success may not be independent, and the combined value is shown for the base case only.
On these assumptions, the model projects peak sales of SEK 12.23B in 2042 for RA, SEK 2.47B in 2039 for RVI and SEK 700.07M in 2037 for dengue, the last being Hipolabor's sales in Brazil, of which SynAct receives half the profit. The Monte Carlo ranges stay positive in 100.0, 99.0 and 99.7 per cent of simulations respectively.
All figures are built using the BioVal™ rNPV engine (version 2.6) from explicit clinical, market and cost parameters, and are presented in SEK as produced by the engine.
Explore the model, live
This analysis is built using the BioVal™ rNPV engine. Open the interactive model for each asset to adjust peak market share, WACC and probability of success, run bull and bear scenarios, and watch the revenue projection and valuation waterfall rebuild in real time.
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Commissioned research. This analysis has been commissioned and paid for by SynAct Pharma AB. BioStock AB acts as an independent analyst and the valuation conclusions are not subject to issuer approval; the issuer reviews the analysis for factual accuracy of company-specific information only.
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